Global Market Trends (2019-2024):
Private debt (non-bank lending to corporates and individuals) has emerged as a dominant force in global finance, filling gaps left by traditional banks and fueled by investor demand for yield. Key trends include:
Explosive Growth & Institutionalization:

• Global AUM surged from $812bn (2019) to ~$1.7tn (2024) (Preqin), a 109% increase (5yr CAGR: 16.4%).
• Direct lending dominates (60%+ of AUM), followed by venture debt (20%) and mezzanine financing.
• Drivers: Stricter bank regulations (Basel III), demand for higher yields, and flexibility in structuring bespoke loans.

Sectoral & Regional Expansion:

• Corporate Focus: Mid-market firms (EBITDA $10–100M) are primary borrowers, especially in business services, healthcare, and technology. Venture debt for startups grew 25% YoY (2021–2023).
• Consumer Lending: Fintech-driven platforms expanded unsecured personal loans (e.g., BNPL grew 230% globally 2020–2022).
• Geographies: North America (55% AUM), Europe (30%), Asia-Pacific (12%). APAC growth leads (18% CAGR), driven by India and Southeast Asia.

Risk-Reward Dynamics:

• Corporate loans yield 8–12% (senior secured) to 15–20% (unitranche). Default rates remain low (2.1% in 2023 vs. 1.7% pre-COVID) but are rising in cyclical sectors.
• Institutional investors allocate 5–15% of portfolios to private debt; 87% of LPs plan to maintain/increase allocations (Coller Capital, 2023).

Competition & Consolidation:

• 400+ new funds launched since 2020. Margins compressed as capital flooded markets, though 2023 rate hikes improved lender pricing power.

The Russian Private Debt Market (Post-2022):
Russia’s private debt landscape has been fractured by geopolitical isolation, though domestic non-banks adapt within severe constraints:
Sanctions-Driven Contraction:

• Foreign capital evaporated: 80% of int’l private debt funds exited. Cross-border lending collapsed.
• AUM fell 60%+ from 2021 peaks (~$15bn pre-2022 → <$6bn in 2024).
• Ruble volatility and capital controls limit lending capacity.

Domestic Market Shifts:

• State Dominance: State banks (Sberbank, VTB) and government programs (e.g., SME support loans at 6–8%) control 70%+ of formal private debt.
• Rise of "Shadow Lenders": Unregulated private lenders and family offices fill gaps for SMEs/individuals at 20–40% rates.
• Sector Constraints: Lending concentrates on "sanction-proof" sectors: agriculture, pharmaceuticals, domestic tech. Consumer lending shrunk 45% (2022–2023).

Data Gaps & Distortions:

• Pre-2022 growth was robust (20% CAGR 2017–2021), led by foreign capital. Post-2022 data is opaque.
• CBR reports 12.5% YoY growth in "non-bank corporate loans" (2023-2024), but this reflects state-subsidized lending, not market dynamics.

Conclusion:
Globally, private debt is a high-growth, institutionalized asset class offering portfolio diversification and attractive risk-adjusted returns. Non-bank lenders are essential capital providers in a constrained banking environment.
In Russia, Lending activity is either state-subsidized (low returns) or predatory (high risk). For non-aligned investors, the market offers no viable entry point. Until geopolitical risks recede, private debt in Russia broadly—will remain a captive, high-stakes game for state actors and opportunistic shadow lenders, devoid of the transparency or stability required for institutional investment.